Life & Real Estate in Eugene, Springfield & Lane County, Oregon

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The Case-Shiller Index shows Good News for Home Prices for the second straight month.

 

In recent months, we've noticed favorable market factors
at the lower end of the price/size range
for homes for sale in

Eugene, Springfield and Lane County, OR.

We've read about declining inventories and stabilizing home prices in many parts of the country --
as evidenced by information posted on
the Active Rain real estate network.


The first reliable, positive national numbers appeared a month ago when

 
  the Case-Shiller Index
(as reported by Standard and Poors and the Wall Street Journal)

for May showed that Index's
first month-on-month increases in nearly three years.

Now, for the Index for the month of

June, 2009

is even more positive.



What is the Case-Shiller Index?

This monthly report is derived from year-on-year sale of the same homes.

It's not an arithmetic mean (average).  It's not a statistical median (half above/half below).


It compares prices paid for individual homes that have turned over during the reporting period.

It is the most accurate market statistic for prices of homes for sale in the United States.

For every city scored by Case-Shiller, a score of 100 represents the level of home prices in the year 2000.


Unfortunately, the Case-Shiller Index is compiled for only 20 American metropolitan areas as shown on the chart below


The cities have been ranked in descending order

by the percentage change in price

during the twelve months ending in June, 2009.

In June, only two cities among the Case-Shiller twenty failed to see an increase in prices:

Detroit and Las Vegas.

Cities going from no change in May to an increase in June included:

New York and Tampa.


Cities changing from a decline in home prices during May to an increase in June were:

Seattle, Los Angeles, and Miami.


None of the listed cities shows a positive number
for the twelve-month period.

The uptick in May and June means that

 the market is beginning to
take back

a fraction of the loss in value experienced by U.S. homes for sale
during the last year.


The Case-Shiller city located closest to the Eugene, Springfield and Lane County market is

Portland, OR.

Portland's Index score reached it's highest point in July, 2007.
 That month the Portland score was 186.51 -- meaning prices in that metro area were
86.51 % higher
 than in January, 2000.

In June, Portland stood at 148.47 -- a decline in home values
of 20.3% from that July, 2007 high.


Case-Shiller Index  -  June, 2009

Case-Shiller Index
City
Index Value
June, 2009
Change From
May, 2009
Change for year ending in
June, 2009
Dallas
119.68
+ 2.7%
-  2.2%
Cleveland
106.38
+ 4.2%
-  3.0%
Denver
126.92
+ 2.5%
-  3.6%
Boston
152.71
+ 2.6%
-  5.9%
Charlotte
120.66
+  .7%
- 9.6%
Washington
174.32
+ 2.8%
- 11.8%
New York
171.49
+  .4% - 11.9%
Atlanta
107.52
+ 1.5%
- 13.7%
Portland, OR
148.47
+ 1.0%
-15.2%
San Diego
147.31
+ 1.6%
- 16.0%
Seattle
149.53
+ 0.4%
-16.1%
Chicago
124.99
+ 1.1%
- 16.7%
Los Angeles
160.90
+ 1.1%
- 17.8%
Tampa
140.90
+  0.4%
- 19.5%
Minneapolis
113.46
+ 3.1%
- 19.8%
San Francisco
124.70
+ 3.8%
- 22.0%
Miami
145.37
+ 0.5%
- 23.4%
Detroit
69.49
- 0.8%
- 25.0%
Phoenix
104.73
+ 1.1%
- 31.6%
Las Vegas
107.31
- 2.0%
- 32.4%

 


For the sake of comparison, the Case- Shiller data
for
 May, 2009
is repeated below:


Case-Shiller Index
City
Index Value
May, 2009
Change From
April, 2009
Change for year ending in
May, 2009
Dallas
116.54
+ 1.9%
- 4.1%
Denver
123.78
+ 1.3%
- 4.6%
Cleveland
102.11
+ 4.1
- 6.2%
Boston
148.77
+ 1.6%
- 7.2%
Charlotte
119.80
+  .9%
-10%
New York
170.51
     0%
-12.2%
Washington
169.49
+ 1.3%
-14.9%
Atlanta
105.69
+  .3%
-15.0%
Portland, OR
146.97
+  .1%
-16.3%
Seattle
148.96
- 0.3%
-16.6%
Chicago
123.68
+ 1.1%
-17.5%
San Diego
145.06
+ 0.4%
-18.5%
Los Angeles
159.18
- 0.1%
-19.8%
Tampa
140.35
   0.0%
-20.8%
Minneapolis
109.77
+ 1.2%
-21.7%
Detroit
  70.05
+ 0.2%
-24.5%
Miami
144.59
-  0.8%
-25.2%
San Francisco
120.16
+ 1.4%
-26.1%
Las Vegas
109.49
- 2.6%
-32.0%
Phoenix
103.56
- 0.9%
-34.2%

 

It would be great if we had Case-Shiller data for our own local market.
Eugene is not Portland.
Our housing values are different.
Our local economy does not precisely track Portland.
Our unemployment rate is higher.
Our employer mix is much different.


Nevertheless, Portland is an important driver for what happens to home prices here.  The upturn in Portland is truly good news. That it appears part of a national trend in prices for homes for sale is quite heartening.

What's the significance of Portland's 15.2% decrease in home value during the last year?

Here's the impact of a 15.2% decline in the price for several levels of  home value one year ago:

Value In
June
2008

15.2%
Decrease
Value In
June
2009
$1,000,000
$152,000
$848,000
$500,000
$76,000 $464,000
$400,000
$60,800
$339,200
$300,000
$45,600
$254,400
$200,000
$30,400
$169,600
$100,000
$15,200
$84,800

 ***********************

 

Jim Hale

Principal Broker / Owner

Graduate, REALTOR Institute             e-PRO

2015 Member, Million Dollar Club of Lane County

actionagents.net
1715 Linnea Avenue
Eugene, OR 97401-1962

Office:  541-484-0219
Direct:  541-543-9991

Eugene Oregon Homes / Real Estate               jim@actionagents.net

Company Logo - ACTIONAGENTS.NET - Eugene, OR - Jim Hale, Principal                      Broker

All statistical market data is based on information from the RMLS of Oregon for the dates indicated.
© 2014  All Rights Reserved  /  Licensed in the State of OREGON

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