Life & Real Estate in Eugene, Springfield & Lane County, Oregon

With this post I cruise over the 500,000 point mark here in ActiveRAIN.  It's well past time to have a picture header across the top of this AR Blog.

But before I could get all my real geese in a row (across the top of this blog), I first had to get my figurative blogging ducks in a row.

In the last (nearly) three years of RAINING, I have learned a lot.  But until today I had never even entertained the possibility of putting a pix across the masthead of this blog.

Then today, I commented on, my friend, Todd Clark's Beaverton, Oregon blog and once again felt header-picture envy. So I emailed Todd who referred me to the freely available Picnic program as an easy way to make one of my personal photos fit the 960 X 130 pixel AR blog-header space.  I also used the AR "Search" function to find Joni Staples'  tutorial on the use of Picnic.

That enabled me to go from this:

To this:

This goose banner pix is just intended to be temporary. 

Now that I know how easy this task is, I'll try to swap in some other pix over time.  Maybe I'll be able to catch some actual Ducks in similar row.

This is Duck Country, after all:

Getting geese in a row is one thing. Getting our local Ducks to stay in a line long enough to snap a pix is a lot harder.  (You'll see the ball flying just above the 50-yard marker.)

 THE MOST MEANINGFUL LOOK AT DATA FOR HOMES FOR SALE IN EUGENE, OR

  IS TO COMPARE

THE CURRENT MONTH WITH THE SAME MONTH IN PRIOR YEARS

Below you'll see that December sales are trending up while inventory declines -- to near historic levels - both necessary trends , if we are going to turn the corner on price.

Average price was about the same as last December.

Now for the

  FERRY STREET BRIDGE

  RMLS Market Area, HERE ARE:

A decade's worth of supply (Active Listings) and demand (Closed Sales)
for the

 Months of DECEMBER

  2001 - 2011:

And a decade of Average Prices for Closed Sales
for the

 Months of DECEMBER

 2001 - 2011:

The time has come.  We can wait no longer.  We need a FEDERAL TRUST COMMISSION.

(Let's face it:  Nobody TRUST Anybody. (Except me, of course.)  And that is affecting my life and my business.  Sometimes, I'm not so sure I even TRUST myself.  The government must come to our rescue.)

A FEDERAL TRUST COMMISSION (hereafter to be called the FTC) should be tasked with insuring TRUST in all places.....especially in high places (where an increase in TRUST would be most welcome indeed) - but also in low places  (where TRUST is clearly, sorely lacking and must be restored).

The FEDERAL TRUST COMISSION would be comprised of  27 members, each having cabinet rank, and each presiding over one highly-specialized, new or revamped governmental unit, such as (but not limited to) the following:


The FEDERAL-TRUST AUTHORITY.  Mission:  establishing TRUST in high places.  We intend to start in the low places and work our way up. We have a five-year plan.  

The FEDERAL TRUST-AGENCY would be all about fixing the horrible trust bust in the housing industry. Our first step was to jail the sunny optimists at the National Association of REALTORS.

The FEDERAL TRUTH-IN-LENDING DIVISION.  This old-line program/agency will be given a new government seal .... of approval....that they will use to stamp the forehead of every mortgage loan officer in the nation.  It will feature prominently the words "In Fanny We Trust.....and the Big Banks, Too".

The FEDERAL TRUTH-IN-REALTY DIVISION.  It seems Congress found out that nearly all real estate agents tell sellers that their expectation for price is too high.  Any continuation of that practice could bring about a Depression-like downturn in real estate values - at any time - and must be snuffed out like the public curse it truly is.  
Following in the footsteps of those who demanded national licensing of mortgage brokers, this agency will license real estate agents - taking special care to insure that they abide by the motto: first do no harm (to seller illusions).

The FEDERAL SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND.  We are all about putting some actual money in an actual trust fund.  But we have got to get Congress to quit spending it and/or quit giving you a payroll tax break in a futile, short run attempt to create jobs.  We were thinking of implementing a tax on real estate sales, but the Obamacare Department beat us to it.  We intend to do them one better, they are going to only go after the wealthy on that one.  Panty waists!

The DEPARTMENT OF OFFENSE.  Like a good football team we should have a Department of Defense and a Department of Offense.  Offend US and this department will Off you, too. We are thinking of adding a Special Teams Department, just to cover all contingencies.  We never heard of that high school basketball coach whose creed included:  The best offense is a good defense.

The FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION.  Sometimes called the  MAKE-IT-A-FEDERAL-ISSUE-AND MAKE-OUR-DAY BUREAU.  You got a problem with the guvmnt do ya? Well, we'll have a thing or two to say about that.

And least but not last (TRUST us, we do have more, but we are well over 200 words):

The FEDERAL BLOGGING COMMISSION.  Step out of line with your blog and  the office will send a SEAL team or a drone after you.  You know who you are....and so do our staff of former China internet censors (trained, of course, by Google).
Not only will we take away your blog and your first born, we may make your points vanish, too. Our back-up motto is:  Your blog or your wife?

But, to be demonstrably fair, we'll give you a get-out-of-jail card that you can (and will) use as needed. Here it is:

This post is a submission to the ActiveRain / Adobe EchoSign Trust Contest. I could possibly win a prize. You can find out about the contest by clicking here

A couple of my acquaintance recently struck up a conversation in a store. They asked how real estate here in Eugene, Oregon was going.  They expressed a wish to buy a home someday....when they could get a down payment together.

I'd heard this from my renter friends before.  But at this moment I had just watched them buy a pack of Marlboros each.  So, ever so gently, I suggested I knew where they could get a down payment. Of course, wide-eyed, they asked where.

My answer was given with a smile:  "You could quit smoking." 

Their eyes showed shock.
That was understandable:  It was an ambush of sorts.  

But I went on to tell them that if they diverted the money they spend on cigarettes into a savings account, they could have a down payment within a year or two.

They thought about that suggestion for ....maybe ten seconds.  Then they hurried off to continue their smoke-filled lives.


But that got me wondering:

So I did a little research at that Albertson's store:  

The cheapest cigarettes (Pyramid brand) were $4.13 per pack.  At a pack-a-day that's $1507 per year for one smoker.
The most expensive (American Spirits) were $6.99 per colorful box.  That's $2551 per year for that big-spender.
The average of those two prices costs $2029 per year.

My friends' Marlboros cost them $5.45.  That's $1989 X 2 people or $3978 per year.

In this area, the median home price has now slid below $200,000.  Let's just use that nice round number.  A minimum down payment for that median-priced home might be 3.5% or $7000.

 
That would take my nicotine-addicted friends one year and nine months to save up - if they stopped smoking tomorrow.  

A single Marlboro man could knock out the down payment for a $100,000 home  (say, a three & one REO) in that same one year and nine months.


Now there are lots of good reasons to quit smoking.  This is just one.  But despite numbers like these many smokers will go through life harming not only their health but their pocketbooks, content to

rent for life.

The dollar cost of smoking goes well beyond the lack of a down payment for a home.

If one person smokes a pack-a-day from age 18 to age 68, that fifty years of smoking will, at today's Marlboro prices,will cost $99,450 ....a Kool $100,000.

Two people X that $100,000?  In my market, they could completely pay for that median-priced, $200,000 home.
  
Alternatively, my married friends with the matching habits could pay cash for

a new ($20,000) car every five years for the price of their addiction.

Let's face it.  Smoking is a real drag.

These are good, hard-working (indeed, workaday) people.  They deserve better than their habit gives.

Do you suppose the person who offered them their first cigarette (allowing the Camel into the tent) explained the long-term cost of sucking on that little stick?

Probably not.

Most people don't buy their cigarettes by-the-carton anymore...too expensive.  But I witnessed a gal buy two cartons of Marlboros the other day.  She was here from Connecticut, where she said cigarettes cost $8.50 a pack.  (That's $3103 per year, $155,125 per lifetime - assuming one starts when it's first legal and dies of lung cancer at 68 ....instead of smoking on into retirement.

Oh, speaking of retirement:  Just think what a person who already owns a home and a car could salt away, if only.....

Sunday, December 25.  Christmas day at our house:  After church, gifts, and food it was time to get seriously down to the game of real estate:  In this case the real estate game was a multi-hour experience with my daughter-in-law's brand new Monopoly game.

It wasn't just any old ordinary Monopoly game....it was a special Monopoly game for lovers of Yorkshire Terriers - Yorkies.

As a breeder (formosayorkies.com) of those wonderful little dogs, she surely qualifies as a lover of them.

I joined in ONLY (mind you) to see what this game could teach me about real estate in 2012. :-)

The game is called Yorkie-opoly...one of serveral versions of the old board game themed to various specific dog breeds.  Here is the board:

Let me repeat:  I only agreed to play this game because I figured I might learn something about real estate investing that I could use in 2012.  And the best part is:  I did.

The moral to this game (and all other versions of Monopoly) is:  invest early or you will regret it later.  If you are not in possession of enough real estate assets, toward the end of the game you may go bankrupt...making some other player fabulously wealthy and the winner of the game (like maybe your winning-centered, wonderful daughter-in-law).

There is a great life lesson there.... and an example/argument to use when advocating the merits of investing

in what you/we sell.

Stop to think of it.  There was even a lesson in the game for bankers:   Even if you are playing the role of game banker....you can go bankrupt, too.

Unless, of course, you are too big to fail.  (I wasn't!)

A word or two of advice about the game:

If you play this, or it's Doggie-opoly sisters:  Look out for the Good Dog cards...they're bad for you.  Don't sweat the Bad Dog cards, they're usually actually good.

    THE MOST MEANINGFUL LOOK AT DATA FOR HOMES FOR SALE IN

  SOUTH LANE COUNTY'S SOUTH LANE SCHOOL DISTRICT

       IS TO COMPARE

      THE CURRENT MONTH WITH THE SAME MONTH IN PRIOR YEARS

The November inventory in South Lane remains near that experienced in the early years

of the last decade.

Meanwhile, closed sales remain at half that of the height of the boom.
However, average price is up - favorably - from last year's low.

So for the

      SOUTH LANE (COTTAGE GROVE)

      RMLS Market Area, HERE ARE:

A decade's worth of supply (Active Listings) and demand (Closed Sales)
for the

     Months of NOVEMBER

     2001 - 2011:

 And a decade of Average Prices for Closed Sales
for the

      Months of NOVEMBER

     2001 - 2011:

These average sales prices represent the arithmetic mean for those residential closed sales in this RMLS market area.   The mix of homes sold varies over time.  The average price for some months is drastically affected by an unusual number of homes selling at the TOP or BOTTOM of the range of prices.  A history of the variation in the statistical median would make for a better comparison but is unavailable from RMLS.

I have strong opinions, but I rarely make a rant into a post.  This is a rant.  Let me get it off my chest while I am still shivering:

BANKS ARE COMPLETELY NUTS!

One of the many ways they are completely nuts (definition:  intent on acting irrationally) is in refusing to keep the electricity on in the Bank-Owned properties they have listed for sale in regions like mine.

Outside the sunny south, they endure the cost of weatherizing these vacant homes, turning off water service, taping notices to sinks and toilets, cluttering up the appearance of the home with notice after ugly notice.  But I get that.  They are risk adverse; they don't want broken pipes and water damage.  I just showed a regular listing today that has obviously had that very problem....with the floor coverings all torn up because of it.

But do the asset managers have to also turn off the electricity?  No, they don't. But they do.

Why in the heck do they do that?

Answer:  because they don't listen to their REALTORS.

Any selling agent could tell them, that by saving money on power they are also:

1.  Turning out the lights. 

That means buyers can't fully "see" kitchens, bathrooms, garages and closets, even in the day time. Not being able to see features means you can't see their benefits or, ultimately, their contribution to value.

That means buyers can't see backyards at night. In fact they can't see the whole house at night.

That means the seller has effectively restricted access to the daytime. 

That means they are making it hard for many working buyers to see the house in the evening.  

That reduces their pool of possible buyers.  Remember what a even a 5-7% fluctuation in demand can do nationally:

take us to boom, then take us to bust. 

They have avoided the light bill....and lost thousands of dollars in price.

2.  Turning off the heat.

Without heat in the winter, a house doesn't "feel" like a home.  A home is supposed to feel warm and cozy. 

It's supposed to "feel" like a place you want to be.  A home isn't supposed to be a place you want to get to hell out of as soon as possible.

No heat in the house, means all buyers will want to flee the premises for the warmth of the car waiting outside.  Most will do so.  

Take away the heat and buyers literally cannot warm up to the house.  They won't take time to see the home's many good points.  They won't stay around long enough to see past the bad points.

By saving the heating costs, lender just eliminated...maybe even alienated....another segment of potential buyers...especially older buyers. Reduced buyers means reduced price. Remember what a even a 5-7% fluctuation in demand can do nationally:

take us to boom, then take us to bust.

3. Turning off their buyers.

I've been writing long enough, here in my warm office, that I am no longer shivering.

But I am still shaking my head in disbelief.

I just showed seven houses to some retired buyers - dressed for cold weather.  A couple were toasty warm.  A couple were merely comfortable. The other three colder than the worst arctic circle coat commercial.   

Somebody, PLEASE, tell the bankers that this market needs all the heat and light it can get!

Just in case they haven't heard.

With this post I pass 400,000 points on ActiveRAIN.

It's been two years this week.

It's been just over 1000 posts - most of which have been local market data...for the 19 MLS areas here in Lane County, Oregon.

It's been a lot of comments given and received.

It's been a lot of fun.

It's been a lot of learning.

It's been worth it.

Thank you, RAINERS!

With this post my monthly AR fee goes down to $9.00. 

Sweet!

By Halloween, I hope to be up another 100,000 . . . and fee free!

Thank you, ActiveRAIN!

THE MOST MEANINGFUL LOOK AT DATA FOR HOMES FOR SALE IN EUGENE, OR

 IS TO COMPARE

THE CURRENT MONTH WITH THE SAME MONTH IN PRIOR YEARS

So for the

SOUTHWEST EUGENE

RMLS Market Area, HERE ARE:

A decade's worth of supply (Active Listings) and demand (Closed Sales)
for the

Months of MARCH

2001 - 2011:

And a decade of Average Prices for Closed Sales
for the

Months of MARCH

2000 - 2011:

These average sales prices represent the arithmetic mean for those residential closed sales in this RMLS market area.   The mix of homes sold varies over time.  The average price for some months is drastically affected by an unusual number of homes selling at the TOP or BOTTOM of the range of prices.  A history of the variation in the statistical median would make for a better comparison but is unavailable from RMLS.