(as reported by Standard and Poors and the Wall Street Journal)
Where have home prices been over the years in Portland, OR?
What does the Case-Shiller Index show us about the long-term trend in prices for homes for sale in Oregon's largest metro area?
How do the increases in Portland's score -- recently reported for May through August, 2009 on this important indicator of the home value -- compare to the city's history since the creation of the Index in 1987?
Well, here is the chart:
Remember, the data behind the index began being tabulated in 1987, but has all been calibrated so that a value of 100 on the Index is equal to the level of Portland home prices in January, 2000.
On this chart you can see the ordinary, slow-but-steady historical rate of home price increase continued up until about 2004.
Then the rate of increase went crazy as larger numbers of buyers dramatically bid up the price of homes at an unsustainable rate.
Then the Index for Portland started an abrupt slide in the summer of 2007.
Now the values for May and June, 2009, have turned the graph of the prices for homes for sale in the Portland area again upward.
Will that trend line again show prices increasing at a rapid pace? Or will Portland prices in the near future graph a lot like the long haul from 1987 to 2004?
Only time -- and national fiscal and monetary policies -- will tell.
But I'm not betting against the long-term history.
