In recent months, we've noticed favorable market factors
at the lower end of the price/size range
for homes for sale in
for homes for sale in
Eugene, Springfield and Lane County, OR.
We've read about declining inventories and stabilizing home prices in many parts of the country -- as evidenced by information posted on
the Active Rain real estate network.
The first reliable and positive national numbers appeared
two months ago when
the Case-Shiller Index
(as reported by Standard and Poors and the Wall Street Journal)
for May showed that Index's first month-on-month increases in nearly three years. The Case-Shiller report for June continued and amplified that trend.
Now, the Index for the month of
July, 2009
(reported on September 29) is again positive.
(reported on September 29) is again positive.
What is the Case-Shiller Index?
This monthly report is derived from year-on-year sale
of the same homes.
of the same homes.
It's not an arithmetic mean (average).
It's not a statistical median (half above/half below).
It's not a statistical median (half above/half below).
It doesn't compare apples to oranges.
It compares prices paid for individual homes turning over
during the reporting period.
It is the most accurate market statistic for prices of homes for sale in the United States.
For every metro area scored by Case-Shiller:
a score of 100 represents the level of home prices
in the year 2000.
a score of 100 represents the level of home prices
in the year 2000.
Unfortunately, the Case-Shiller Index is compiled for only 20 American metropolitan areas as shown on the chart below.
The metro areas have been ranked in descending order
by the percentage change in price
during the twelve months ending in July, 2009.
Case-Shiller Index - July, 2009
| Case-Shiller Index City |
Index Value July, 2009 |
Change From June, 2009 |
Change for year ending in July, 2009 |
| Cleveland |
107.93 |
+ 1.5% |
- 1.3% |
| Dallas |
121.17 |
+ 1.2% |
- 1.6% |
| Denver |
128.79 |
+ 1.5% |
- 2.9% |
| Boston |
154.53 |
+ 1.2% |
- 4.9% |
| Charlotte |
121.23 |
+ .6% |
- 9.0% |
| Washington |
176.32 | + 1.8% |
- 9.8% |
| New York |
173.66 |
+ .8% | - 10.3% |
| Atlanta |
110.06 |
+ 2.3% |
- 11.8% |
| San Diego | 150.99 |
+ 2.5% |
-12.3% |
| Portland, OR |
150.06 |
+ 1.1% |
- 13.9% |
| Chicago |
128.32 |
+ 2.7% |
-14.2% |
| Los Angeles |
163.86 |
+ 1.8% |
- 14.9% |
| Seattle |
149.44 |
- 0.1% |
- 15.3% |
| Minneapolis | 118.68 |
+ 4.6% |
- 17.3% |
| San Francisco |
128.86 | + 3.3% |
- 17.9% |
| Tampa |
142.84 |
+ 1.4% |
- 18.4% |
| Miami |
147.27 |
+ 1.3% |
- 21.2% |
| Detroit |
70.25 |
+ 1.1% |
- 24.6% |
| Phoenix |
106.66 |
+ 1.8% |
- 28.5% |
| Las Vegas |
106.08 |
- 1.1% |
- 31.4% |
Only two cities among the Case-Shiller twenty failed to see an increase in prices during July:
Seattle (down 0.1%) and Las Vegas (down 1.1%).
None of the listed cities shows a positive number for the twelve-month period, though some are getting close.
The uptick in May, June and July means that
the market is taking back
a fraction of the loss in value experienced by U.S. homes for sale
The uptick in May, June and July means that
the market is taking back
a fraction of the loss in value experienced by U.S. homes for sale
during the last year.
The Case-Shiller city located closest to
the Eugene, Springfield and Lane County market is:
Portland, OR.
Portland's Index score reached it's highest point in July, 2007.
That month the Portland score was 186.51 -- meaning
prices in that metro area were
86.51 % higher
than in January, 2000.
Portland, OR.
Portland's Index score reached it's highest point in July, 2007.
That month the Portland score was 186.51 -- meaning
prices in that metro area were
86.51 % higher
than in January, 2000.
In July, 2009, Portland stood at 150.06 -- a decline in home values
of 19.5% from that July, 2007 high.
For comparison sake, the Case-Shiller Index numbers
for June and May are repeated below:
for June and May are repeated below:
Case-Shiller Index - June, 2009
Cities going from no change in May to an increase in June included:
New York and Tampa.
Cities changing from a decline in home prices during May to an increase in June were:
Seattle, Los Angeles, and Miami.
In June, Portland stood at 148.47 -- a decline in home values
of 20.3% from the July, 2007 high.
| Case-Shiller Index City |
Index Value June, 2009 |
Change From May, 2009 |
Change for year ending in June, 2009 |
| Dallas |
119.68 |
+ 2.7% |
- 2.2% |
| Cleveland |
106.38 |
+ 4.2% |
- 3.0% |
| Denver |
126.92 |
+ 2.5% |
- 3.6% |
| Boston |
152.71 |
+ 2.6% |
- 5.9% |
| Charlotte |
120.66 |
+ .7% |
- 9.6% |
| Washington |
174.32 |
+ 2.8% |
- 11.8% |
| New York |
171.49 |
+ .4% | - 11.9% |
| Atlanta |
107.52 |
+ 1.5% |
- 13.7% |
| Portland, OR |
148.47 |
+ 1.0% |
-15.2% |
| San Diego |
147.31 |
+ 1.6% |
- 16.0% |
| Seattle |
149.53 |
+ 0.4% |
-16.1% |
| Chicago |
124.99 |
+ 1.1% |
- 16.7% |
| Los Angeles |
160.90 |
+ 1.1% |
- 17.8% |
| Tampa |
140.90 |
+ 0.4% |
- 19.5% |
| Minneapolis |
113.46 |
+ 3.1% |
- 19.8% |
| San Francisco |
124.70 |
+ 3.8% |
- 22.0% |
| Miami |
145.37 |
+ 0.5% |
- 23.4% |
| Detroit |
69.49 |
- 0.8% |
- 25.0% |
| Phoenix |
104.73 |
+ 1.1% |
- 31.6% |
| Las Vegas |
107.31 |
- 2.0% |
- 32.4% |
Case-Shiller Index - May, 2009
| Case-Shiller Index City |
Index Value May, 2009 |
Change From April, 2009 |
Change for year ending in May, 2009 |
| Dallas |
116.54 |
+ 1.9% |
- 4.1% |
| Denver |
123.78 |
+ 1.3% |
- 4.6% |
| Cleveland |
102.11 |
+ 4.1 |
- 6.2% |
| Boston |
148.77 |
+ 1.6% |
- 7.2% |
| Charlotte |
119.80 |
+ .9% |
-10% |
| New York |
170.51 |
0% |
-12.2% |
| Washington |
169.49 |
+ 1.3% |
-14.9% |
| Atlanta |
105.69 |
+ .3% |
-15.0% |
| Portland, OR |
146.97 |
+ .1% |
-16.3% |
| Seattle |
148.96 |
- 0.3% |
-16.6% |
| Chicago |
123.68 |
+ 1.1% |
-17.5% |
| San Diego |
145.06 |
+ 0.4% |
-18.5% |
| Los Angeles |
159.18 |
- 0.1% |
-19.8% |
| Tampa |
140.35 |
0.0% |
-20.8% |
| Minneapolis |
109.77 |
+ 1.2% |
-21.7% |
| Detroit |
70.05 |
+ 0.2% |
-24.5% |
| Miami |
144.59 |
- 0.8% |
-25.2% |
| San Francisco |
120.16 |
+ 1.4% |
-26.1% |
| Las Vegas |
109.49 |
- 2.6% |
-32.0% |
| Phoenix |
103.56 |
- 0.9% |
-34.2% |
It would be great if we had Case-Shiller data for our own local market.
Eugene is not Portland.
Our housing values are different.
Our local economy does not precisely track Portland.
Our unemployment rate is higher.
Our employer mix is much different.
Eugene is not Portland.
Our housing values are different.
Our local economy does not precisely track Portland.
Our unemployment rate is higher.
Our employer mix is much different.
Nevertheless, Portland is an important driver for what happens to home prices here. The upturn in Portland is truly good news. That it appears part of a national trend in prices for homes for sale is heartening.
