(as reported by Standard and Poors and the Wall Street Journal)
Where have home prices been over the last 23 years in Portland, OR?
What does the Case-Shiller Index show us about the long-term trend in prices for homes for sale in Oregon's largest metro area?
Well, here is the most recent chart:
The Portland's score is down slightly for August, 2010 - the most recent month available - reported today. That is compared to July, 2010.
The Portland score has been up and down in recent months on this important indicator of the home values -- but the long term trend is clear:
Oregon is on track for the long haul --
with the 2004-2008 Boom and Bust clearly shown for
the true historical anomaly it was.
Where would we be for Oregon home values if the government and the lenders had not gone bananas during the lead up to the boom, then bust?
Why, right about where we are now?
But we'd have a lot less economic pain and societal sorrow if they had not driven us to the top, then over the edge, of that cliff!
If you'd like a little more graphic look, here is the graph I printed at this time last year?
Remember, the data behind the index began being tabulated in 1987, but has all been calibrated so that a value of 100 on the Index is equal to the level of Portland home prices in January, 2000.
On this chart you can see the ordinary, slow-but-steady historical rate of home price increase continued up until about 2004.
Then the rate of increase went crazy as larger numbers of buyers dramatically bid up the price of homes at an unsustainable rate.
Then the Index for Portland started an abrupt slide in the summer of 2007.
Last year, I asked these questions:
Will that trend line again show prices of Portland homes for sale increasing at a rapid pace? Or will Portland prices in the near future graph a lot like the long haul from 1987 to 2004?
Then, I gave these answers:
Only time -- and national fiscal and monetary policies -- will tell.
But I'm not betting against the long-term history.
After seeing this most recent chart, would you?
Principal Broker / Owner
Graduate, REALTOR Institute e-PRO
2015 Member, Million Dollar Club of Lane County
All statistical market data is based on information from the RMLS of Oregon for the dates indicated.
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