(as reported by Standard and Poors and the Wall Street Journal)
Where have home prices been over the last 23 years in Portland, OR?
What does the Case-Shiller Index show us about the long-term trend in prices for homes for sale in Oregon's largest metro area?
Well, here is the most recent chart:
The Portland's score is down slightly for August, 2010 - the most recent month available - reported today. That is compared to July, 2010.
The Portland score has been up and down in recent months on this important indicator of the home values -- but the long term trend is clear:
Oregon is on track for the long haul --
with the 2004-2008 Boom and Bust clearly shown for
the true historical anomaly it was.
Where would we be for Oregon home values if the government and the lenders had not gone bananas during the lead up to the boom, then bust?
Why, right about where we are now?
But we'd have a lot less economic pain and societal sorrow if they had not driven us to the top, then over the edge, of that cliff!
If you'd like a little more graphic look, here is the graph I printed at this time last year?
Remember, the data behind the index began being tabulated in 1987, but has all been calibrated so that a value of 100 on the Index is equal to the level of Portland home prices in January, 2000.
On this chart you can see the ordinary, slow-but-steady historical rate of home price increase continued up until about 2004.
Then the rate of increase went crazy as larger numbers of buyers dramatically bid up the price of homes at an unsustainable rate.
Then the Index for Portland started an abrupt slide in the summer of 2007.
Last year, I asked these questions:
Will that trend line again show prices of Portland homes for sale increasing at a rapid pace? Or will Portland prices in the near future graph a lot like the long haul from 1987 to 2004?
Then, I gave these answers:
Only time -- and national fiscal and monetary policies -- will tell.
But I'm not betting against the long-term history.
After seeing this most recent chart, would you?
***********************
Jim Hale
Principal Broker / Owner
Graduate, REALTOR Institute e-PRO
2012 Member, Million Dollar Club of Lane County
2012 Member, Real Estate Brokers Million Dollar Club
actionagents.net
1715 Linnea Avenue
Eugene, OR 97401-1962
Office: 541-484-0219
Direct: 541-543-9991
Fax: 541-485-8068
Eugene Oregon Homes / Real Estate jim@actionagents.net
All statistical market data is based on information from the RMLS of Oregon for the dates indicated.
© 2012 All Rights Reserved / Licensed in the State of OREGON
Jim, aways enjoy your local market updates to see how things are moving in your area. I hope your business in fantastic and thank you again for sharing. Cheers!
Tom -
Thank you for the compliment.
Jim ~ this graph is a clear illustration of the market trends. Thanks for sharing it -- too bad I bought my present home in the boom of 2006!! Oh well. I'll hope for longterm stability (fingers crossed).
Maureen -
You are not alone. The good news is that prices appear to still be on track for the long haul.
The sad part is their idea of making this a better, stronger economy by getting everyone in to homes has backfired big time and now we are all paying the price. It may take years to recover and when we do, what will they try next??
Todd -
That is the big question alright.
I love your graphs, Jim and your commentary on them! Really shows what has been going on in housing this last decade!
Congratulations on the 300K level!!!!!
Good Morning Jim, nice market report, and congrats on the Milestone of 300K points. Your press agent, Jenny Kotolak is trying to spread the word.
Bruce
Thank you. A similar chart for any of the 20 Case-Shiller cities (metro areas) would show just what an historic anomaly the boom AND the bust were. The public needs to be educated on both aspects.
Ed -
Thank you, too. Jenny a press agent? Yes, she may have missed her calling. She'd be a good one.
Jim this is great information for the folks in your area. Nice Post.
Congratulations on the huge milestone in Active Rain...
Jim you do a great job providing information to your marketplace, Your graphs are visually attractive.
Just read Jenny's post and I wanted to congratulate you on the milestone.
Diane -
Thank you so much. I take great solace in the big-picture this particular graph shows.
Jennifer-
Thank you, too. 300,000 points in 17 months of fun here in the RAIN. I have learned a lot.
I still haven’t decided whether or not I like the S&P/Case-Shiller report. How they do it is kind of odd.
Russel -
It think the Case-Shiller is the best regional info available. Of course, it best applies to the twenty metro areas ...but Portland is usually indicative of the overall trends for my area.
It presents a better picture than the MLS's "average price" or even "median price" data.